Weekly Chart Update 18 4 2014

The US Market

Since the beginning of March, the US market has been on a rough ride. It passed through the 20 day moving average line as many as 8 times! This shows how unstable the market is. On Thursday, although the S&P 500 closed above the 20 day MA again, but Im still skeptical about this chart pattern development as the rising prices were accompanied by falling volume. I will step aside and wait for more confirmation on this. Resistance at 1890, support at 1800.

KLCI Market

I did a comparison on the regional markets PE ratios I discovered that KLCI is on a pricey side with 17 times PE ratio. Hang Seng and Shanghai are among the lowest with 10 - 11 times. STI is 14 times while Thailand is 16 times. This probably explains why KLCI is lacking momentum to move higher. Support at 1820, resistance at 1870.

STI Market

Since end of March, STI broke out from the bearish trendline and currently it looks overbought. If you are looking for opportunity to buy into the STI stocks, perhaps you could wait for a pullback to add more positions in it. For long term investors, I always advice invest in stages, or invest during the cycle low months such as February, May, August and November. Support at 3150, resistance at 3300.

Weekly Chart Update 2 5 2014

Information for this week has been overwhelmed that wallstreet participants need time to digest. On Wednesday, the FOMC announced a fourth $10 billion reduction to its quantitative easing (QE) program, reducing its monthly bond purchases to $45 billion and keeping pace with earlier guidance. Everyone was reading every single word that Yellen said, line by line, including myself. The feeling is that she is not so concern about rapid growth for the US GDP, she will continue to observe and measure the effect of tapering on the economy and make changes should the need arise.

In addition, the US GDP 1st quarter 2014 was a mere 0.1% growth, which showed that the amount of money put into the system doesnt work much at all.

Most importantly, the Ukraine crisis has escalated on Friday with clashes between the pro-Russian protesters and the Ukrainian government supporters in the eastern part of Ukrain, Sloviansk. Earlier some pro-Russian gunmen took over some government buildings in this eastern part of Ukraine, now the Ukraine government launched an offensive attack against these pro-Russian protesters to take control of the besieged eastern city of Ukraine. Death tolls are amounting at the point of writing.

The complication of this Ukraine crisis is that despite Russias denying their participation in this war, the US president, Obama has gathered supports from the EU countries to impose sanctions on Russia. Hence, if this escalates, it will not be a simple Ukraine crisis, it would have a bigger implication to world peace.

US Market

I have re-drawn the S&P 500 chart due to its range bound price actions for the past 2 months. Chances are it will continue on this horizontal trend until further news. The market is lack of direction now, or we call it "Neutral".

STI Market

For the Singapore market, I have drawn a bullish channel beginning from the beginning of February. After 3 months of bullish trend, I think there is a great possibility that it may go through a horizontal trend for the next 2 months based on my analysis on the past trends for this index. Nothing is guranteed, but I forecast based on probabilities that the STI seems to work well with a 3 waves chart pattern. Resistance 3300, support at 3200.

KLCI Market

From the chart we can see that the KLCI is little stretched here. We need new leads to push the market higher. Support maintain at 1840.

March 2014 Market Report

A monthly report on the US, Singapore and the Malaysia stock markets, as well as the outlook of gold and the palm oil markets.